?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
piggzwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

piggz

No games played over 6 months.

B8 Esports

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Dendi · 13 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Mary_y · 12 games
17%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
27%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
55%
Bane
Bane
Mary_y · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
40%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Dendi · 10 games
40%
Lion
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 704 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
436 picks · 616 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 393 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 753 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
387 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 749 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1045 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength57% piggz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
piggz 40%B8 Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by piggz.
Game 2prediction correct
piggz 40%B8 Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports.
Game 3prediction missed
piggz 40%B8 Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by piggz.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 60%
Series resultpiggz 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3