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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 36 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 29 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 29 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 28 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 23 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 20 games
45%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 18 games
61%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 35 games
46%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 26 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Niku · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 19 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 18 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 17 games
76%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Niku · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 697 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 615 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 391 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 750 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
386 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 749 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 1040 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total64% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:7
MOUZ 55%Natus Vincere Junior 45%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 24:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
48% · 114 games42% · 227 games
Doompma
Doom
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSupream^
52% · 100 games51% · 31 game
Night Stalkergotthejuice
Night Stalker
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
46% · 159 games55% · 93 games
SlardarNiku
Slardar
Io
Iobengan
47% · 41 game61% · 124 games
WeaverDaze
Weaver
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
53% · 118 games43% · 57 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Game 2prediction missed6:32
MOUZ 58%Natus Vincere Junior 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 25:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusSupream^
47% · 102 games59% · 134 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
47% · 178 games48% · 124 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Viper
ViperForce
38% · 40 games54% · 69 games
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenbengan
54% · 190 games54% · 131 game
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
49% · 114 games46% · 166 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct33:24
MOUZ 58%Natus Vincere Junior 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaUlnit
56% · 38 games48% · 185 games
Lunagotthejuice
Luna
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSupream^
51% · 186 games45% · 130 games
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
37% · 200 games48% · 93 games
Earth SpiritNiku
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNARMAN
51% · 146 games57% · 151 game
WeaverDaze
Weaver
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorbengan
56% · 88 games54% · 99 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 64%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3