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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Night Pulseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 22 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
OmaR · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 17 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 16 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
38%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 16 games
63%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TA2000 · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
40%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 6 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Corrupted · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
JANTER · 5 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 697 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 616 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 391 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 752 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
387 picks · 162 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 751 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
349 picks · 1041 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
PSG Quest 65%Night Pulse 35%
The model gave 65% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 28:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyTA2000
50% · 228 games50% · 61 game
Troll WarlordV-Tune
Troll Warlord
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
59% · 124 games42% · 183 games
Dragon KnightKami
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
51% · 195 games44% · 69 games
Earth SpiritWorick
Earth Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOmaR
54% · 106 games47% · 230 games
TechiesJANTER
Techies
Venomancer
VenomancerDukalis
43% · 44 games57% · 154 games
GrimstrokeHduo
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct24:4
PSG Quest 63%Night Pulse 37%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 24:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarNo!ob
56% · 47 games46% · 52 games
Chaos KnightV-Tune
Chaos Knight
Tiny
TinyTA2000
55% · 111 games40% · 67 games
AxeKami
Axe
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
53% · 65 games44% · 56 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
47% · 125 games51% · 173 games
PhoenixJANTER
Phoenix
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDukalis
59% · 89 games49% · 89 games
Spirit BreakerHduo
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 74%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2