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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Azure Rayloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Lion
Lion
Pyw · 15 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marsoften banned
niu · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Setsu · 12 games
42%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Setsu · 12 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 11 games
55%
Weaver
Weaversignature
shiro · 11 games
82%

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 30 games
60%
Lion
Lion
fy · 28 games
54%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 28 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 27 games
59%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 22 games
68%
Luna
Luna
lou · 21 game
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 224 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 697 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 616 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 391 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 752 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
387 picks · 162 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 751 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
349 picks · 1040 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 51%
Hero pool strength53% Azure Ray
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total62% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:24
LGD Gaming 43%Azure Ray 57%
The model gave 57% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyshiro
48% · 226 games50% · 40 games
Wraith Kinglou
Wraith King
Leshrac
LeshracEcho
48% · 117 games58% · 166 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Mars
Marsniu
54% · 156 games44% · 205 games
TimbersawFaith_bian
Timbersaw
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPyw
51% · 98 games41% · 202 games
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
Io
Ioy`
55% · 60 games55% · 44 games
Venomancer天命
Venomancer
Game 2prediction missed34:15
LGD Gaming 42%Azure Ray 58%
The model gave 58% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyshiro
47% · 173 games55% · 167 games
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightEcho
53% · 124 games52% · 25 games
Wraith Kinglou
Wraith King
Mars
Marsniu
49% · 142 games53% · 137 games
Ember SpiritOri
Ember Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
39% · 27 games54% · 132 games
Clockwerkfy
Clockwerk
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverny`
44% · 40 games43% · 45 games
Silencer天命
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 62%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2