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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Leviatanwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Genek · 6 games
17%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
20%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Gardick · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 3 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Frank · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
33%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Gardick · 3 games
0%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Genek · 3 games
33%

Leviatan

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
kpii · 4 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 3 games
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Sammyboy · 3 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 3 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
kpii · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 3 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Sammyboy · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 693 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 609 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
423 picks · 385 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 746 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
384 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 751 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
347 picks · 1030 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 62%
Hero pool strength62% Leviatan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Leviatan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:18
Lava 41%Leviatan 59%
The model gave 59% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Leviatan in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenDaaD-
50% · 131 game55% · 55 games
Chaos KnightMnz
Chaos Knight
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAdrx
50% · 72 games43% · 3 games
Shadow FiendStojkov
Shadow Fiend
Weaver
WeaverPamplona
55% · 88 games47% · 144 games
Brewmasterkpii
Brewmaster
Grimstroke
Grimstroke555k
53% · 120 games44% · 209 games
RubickXepher
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed49:23
Lava 38%Leviatan 62%
The model gave 62% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Lava in 47:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDaaD-
47% · 146 games57% · 70 games
Troll WarlordMnz
Troll Warlord
Axe
AxeAdrx
40% · 43 games56% · 119 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixPamplona
45% · 156 games54% · 139 games
Marskpii
Mars
Clockwerk
Clockwerk555k
49% · 111 games51% · 128 games
Dark WillowXepher
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct8:36
Lava 40%Leviatan 60%
The model gave 60% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Leviatan in 32:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDaaD-
47% · 163 games58% · 16 games
Shadow FiendMnz
Shadow Fiend
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderAdrx
53% · 29 games56% · 116 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Phoenix
PhoenixPamplona
45% · 161 game51% · 187 games
Centaur Warrunnerkpii
Centaur Warrunner
Treant Protector
Treant Protector555k
50% · 92 games47% · 126 games
Dark WillowXepher
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteLeviatan · 68%
Series resultLeviatan 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3