Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 2:3series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:3
nounswin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 22 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 15 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Tinysignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
nouns
Tinysignature
Lelis · 25 games
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 20 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 17 games
Gyrocopter
Lelis · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 16 games
Techiessignature
Fly · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 685 bans
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 607 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 383 bans
Batrider
413 picks · 749 bans
Rubick
384 picks · 162 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
Dragon Knight
346 picks · 1028 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total72% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:10
Shopify Rebellion 61%nouns 39%
The model gave 61% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusYopaj
Wraith KingYuma
Night StalkerArteezy
Dragon KnightCopy
AxeMinD_ContRoL
Primal BeastGunnar
Treant ProtectorSkem
RubickLelis
49% · 66 games
ClockwerkFly
Game 2prediction missed17:34
Shopify Rebellion 62%nouns 38%
The model gave 62% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 57:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracYopaj
Storm SpiritCopy
RikiArteezy
UrsaYuma
AxeMinD_ContRoL
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
Treant ProtectorSkem
Shadow DemonLelis
41% · 35 games
MiranaFly
Game 3prediction correct28:17
Shopify Rebellion 62%nouns 38%
The model gave 62% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzArteezy
GyrocopterYuma
Storm SpiritYopaj
Void SpiritCopy
Sand KingMinD_ContRoL
AxeGunnar
ClockwerkSkem
Dark WillowLelis
55% · 71 game
Crystal MaidenFly
Game 4prediction missed7:29
Shopify Rebellion 63%nouns 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 31:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaArteezy
MeepoYuma
EarthshakerYopaj
Earth SpiritCopy
AxeMinD_ContRoL
MarsGunnar
SilencerSkem
ClockwerkLelis
43% · 71 game
PhoenixFly
Game 5prediction missed10:35
Shopify Rebellion 61%nouns 39%
The model gave 61% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracYopaj
Chaos KnightYuma
ClinkzArteezy
Storm SpiritCopy
Night StalkerMinD_ContRoL
AxeGunnar
ClockwerkSkem
WeaverFly
43% · 75 games
MiranaLelis
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 72%
Series resultnouns 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5