Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Midas Clubloss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Cuyes Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Midas Club
Crystal Maidensignature
Wij · 10 games
Techies
Hyko · 9 games
Disruptoroften banned
Wij · 5 games
Chenoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Costabile · 4 games
Marsoften banned
4dr · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Costabile · 4 games
Cuyes Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 683 bans
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 607 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 383 bans
Batrider
413 picks · 752 bans
Rubick
384 picks · 162 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
Shadow Demon
346 picks · 966 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Midas Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Midas Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Midas Club 56%Cuyes Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Midas Club — the game was taken by Midas Club.
Game 2prediction missed
Midas Club 56%Cuyes Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Midas Club — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports.
Game 3prediction missed
Midas Club 56%Cuyes Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Midas Club — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteMidas Club · 56%
Series resultCuyes Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3