BLAST Slam IX. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionDBDawn Bullswin 1:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Kalmychataloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dawn Bulls
No games played over 6 months.
Kalmychata
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
473 picks · 309 bans
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 498 bans
Clockwerk
306 picks · 364 bans
Bane
304 picks · 426 bans
Mirana
294 picks · 110 bans
Shadow Fiend
291 picks · 616 bans
Dark Willow
287 picks · 120 bans
Centaur Warrunner
273 picks · 290 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Dawn Bulls
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Dawn Bulls 41%Kalmychata 59%
The model gave 59% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Dawn Bulls.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 59%
Series resultDawn Bulls 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1