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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Twisted Mindsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 34 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 29 games
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 28 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 28 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 22 games
73%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 20 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 20 games
55%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 18 games
61%

Twisted Minds

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 16 games
31%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Pablo · 15 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
43%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 12 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Adzantick · 12 games
58%
Sven
Sven
Shad · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 12 games
42%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Handsken · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
481 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 681 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
426 picks · 604 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 383 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 750 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 162 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
345 picks · 1026 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:22
MOUZ 73%Twisted Minds 27%
The model gave 73% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSupream^
48% · 58 games47% · 172 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightUlnit
56% · 34 games47% · 96 games
ZeusAdzantick
Zeus
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
41% · 188 games56% · 94 games
WeaverStoneBank
Weaver
Venomancer
Venomancerbengan
57% · 39 games61% · 67 games
IoHandsken
Io
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
51% · 233 games45% · 123 games
Spirit BreakerPablo
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct26:10
MOUZ 74%Twisted Minds 26%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 44:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
48% · 154 games44% · 115 games
RazorShad
Razor
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSupream^
48% · 9 games44% · 73 games
Earth SpiritAdzantick
Earth Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNARMAN
50% · 59 games58% · 88 games
WeaverStoneBank
Weaver
Pugna
PugnaForce
57% · 107 games49% · 158 games
Dark WillowPablo
Dark Willow
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonbengan
50% · 169 games50% · 64 games
IoHandsken
Io
Game 3prediction correct
MOUZ 87%Twisted Minds 13%
The model gave 87% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 87%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3