Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JustBetterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
JustBetter
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 8 games
Batridersignature
Astral · 6 games
Luna
Focus · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
Grimstroke
Astral · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Focus · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
481 picks · 222 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 681 bans
Centaur Warrunner
426 picks · 604 bans
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 383 bans
Batrider
413 picks · 750 bans
Rubick
382 picks · 162 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
Dragon Knight
345 picks · 1026 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Entity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:12
Entity 92%JustBetter 8%
The model gave 92% on Entity — the game was taken by JustBetter in 29:41.
Game 2prediction missed9:33
Entity 92%JustBetter 8%
The model gave 92% on Entity — the game was taken by JustBetter in 23:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 92%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2