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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 3:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 27 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 24 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 22 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
65%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Squad1x · 20 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 19 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 18 games
61%

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lion
Zayac · 15 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nefrit · 11 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
Zayac · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 681 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
426 picks · 602 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 383 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
415 picks · 747 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 164 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 754 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
346 picks · 1024 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total51% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:17
Virtus.pro 51%Natus Vincere 49%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 50:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusSquad1x
50% · 77 games43% · 40 games
Troll WarlordYuragi
Troll Warlord
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
57% · 96 games46% · 220 games
RubickSancity
Rubick
Doom
DoomNoticed
52% · 196 games50% · 39 games
AxeNefrit
Axe
Snapfire
SnapfireAntares
51% · 173 games52% · 125 games
HoodwinkZayac
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernFng
45% · 28 games48% · 146 games
UndyingMalady
Undying
Game 2prediction correct24:27
Virtus.pro 52%Natus Vincere 48%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 54:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKiritych
53% · 201 game44% · 34 games
Chaos KnightYuragi
Chaos Knight
Viper
ViperSquad1x
48% · 24 games46% · 217 games
Dragon KnightSancity
Dragon Knight
Underlord
UnderlordNoticed
64% · 35 games55% · 103 games
Death ProphetNefrit
Death Prophet
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFng
50% · 177 games45% · 159 games
PhoenixMalady
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickAntares
49% · 217 games50% · 141 game
Dark WillowZayac
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct32:33
Virtus.pro 52%Natus Vincere 48%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 55:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracSquad1x
50% · 163 games50% · 229 games
GyrocopterYuragi
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyKiritych
48% · 288 games55% · 182 games
Storm SpiritSancity
Storm Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderNoticed
52% · 45 games47% · 66 games
SlardarNefrit
Slardar
Rubick
RubickAntares
49% · 331 game51% · 256 games
Crystal MaidenMalady
Crystal Maiden
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernFng
43% · 38 games52% · 132 games
Dark WillowZayac
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 51%
Series resultVirtus.pro 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3