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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dandelionswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 35 games
46%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Niku · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 19 games
68%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 17 games
76%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 16 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Niku · 15 games
47%

Dandelions

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
481 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 678 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
423 picks · 602 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 381 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 745 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
377 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 754 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
345 picks · 1023 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:33
Natus Vincere Junior 63%Dandelions 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Dandelions in 37:34.
Game 2prediction correct24:15
Natus Vincere Junior 63%Dandelions 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 23:59.
Game 3prediction missed28:32
Natus Vincere Junior 63%Dandelions 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Dandelions in 48:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 63%
Series resultDandelions 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3