?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Ponyo · 13 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 13 games
69%
Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 13 games
54%
Luna
Luna
Akashi · 12 games
50%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 221 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 673 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
418 picks · 599 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
415 picks · 381 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 741 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 1016 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total52% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:17
Talon Esports 52%Blacklist International 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:18.
Game 2prediction missed16:40
Talon Esports 52%Blacklist International 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 50:05.
Game 3prediction missed11:30
Talon Esports 52%Blacklist International 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 36:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 52%
Series resultBlacklist International 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3