LGD Gaming vs Spiky Gaming — prediction RM2ЗК · Dota 2

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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

LGD Gamingwin 2:0

series probability

93%7%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Spiky Gamingloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Lion

Pyw · 15 games

53%

Tusk

Pyw · 13 games

54%

Marsoften banned

niu · 12 games

50%

Pangolieroften banned

niu · 12 games

42%

Puckoften banned

Setsu · 12 games

58%

Timbersawoften banned

niu · 12 games

58%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Setsu · 11 games

55%

Naga Sirensignature

shiro · 10 games

60%

Spiky Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Crystal Maiden

480 picks · 221 bans

54%

Tiny

437 picks · 673 bans

53%

Centaur Warrunner

418 picks · 599 bans

53%

Gyrocopter

415 picks · 381 bans

50%

Batrider

413 picks · 741 bans

50%

Rubick

376 picks · 161 bans

50%

Pangolier

354 picks · 754 bans

53%

Dragon Knight

344 picks · 1016 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)45% vs 60%

Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total93% LGD Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct25:5

LGD Gaming 80%Spiky Gaming 20%

The model gave 80% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 23:18.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo