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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dark Horseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 30 games
60%
Lion
Lion
fy · 28 games
54%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 28 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 26 games
58%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 22 games
68%
Luna
Luna
lou · 21 game
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 20 games
45%

Dark Horse

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sheep · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
sheep · 6 games
50%
Lion
Lion
sheep · 3 games
33%
Techies
Techies
sheep · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
sheep · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sheep · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
sheep · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sheep · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 221 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 673 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
418 picks · 599 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
415 picks · 381 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 741 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 1016 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength60% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:8
Azure Ray 84%Dark Horse 16%
The model gave 84% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 26:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendOri
54% · 11 games43% · 157 games
Phoenixsheep
Phoenix
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlou
53% · 102 games48% · 131 game
Crystal Maiden谢乐zzz张泽中
Crystal Maiden
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFaith_bian
47% · 90 games
Chen
Chen天命
57% · 52 games
Earthshaker
Earthshakerfy
61% · 33 games
Game 2prediction correct37:24
Azure Ray 81%Dark Horse 19%
The model gave 81% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 41:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kinglou
48% · 22 games52% · 190 games
Grimstrokesheep
Grimstroke
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinOri
43% · 53 games56% · 43 games
Venomancer谢乐zzz张泽中
Venomancer
Viper
ViperFaith_bian
57% · 17 games
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerfy
45% · 71 game
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon天命
46% · 70 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 95%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2