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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Zeroloss 0:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KEVwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Zero

Lion
Lion
Ponlo · 14 games
57%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 12 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 11 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
BEYOND · 9 games
67%
Luna
Luna
poyoyo · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
zzq · 8 games
75%
Razor
Razoroften banned
BEYOND · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
7e · 7 games
71%

KEV

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Undyne_ · 7 games
100%
Omniknight
Omniknightsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
71%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 7 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Undyne_ · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
478 picks · 221 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 669 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
415 picks · 596 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
413 picks · 380 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
412 picks · 738 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 1012 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Team Zero
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total81% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:17
Team Zero 70%KEV 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Zero — the game was taken by KEV in 37:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterpoyoyo
51% · 157 games55% · 172 games
LifestealerUlu
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
52% · 229 games49% · 147 games
WindrangerButterflyEffect
Windranger
Slardar
Slardar7e
49% · 89 games50% · 27 games
Legion Commander生死
Legion Commander
Chen
Chenzzq
55% · 74 games44% · 228 games
PhoenixRedPanda
Phoenix
Snapfire
SnapfirePonlo
49% · 154 games48% · 129 games
ClockwerkUndyne_
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed7:28
Team Zero 67%KEV 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Zero — the game was taken by KEV in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinypoyoyo
47% · 120 games44% · 88 games
Troll WarlordUlu
Troll Warlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light7e
57% · 96 games46% · 101 game
ZeusButterflyEffect
Zeus
Viper
ViperBEYOND
53% · 18 games48% · 56 games
Legion Commander生死
Legion Commander
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPonlo
53% · 68 games50% · 84 games
VenomancerUndyne_
Venomancer
Batrider
Batriderzzq
53% · 191 game50% · 164 games
Dark WillowRedPanda
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 81%
Series resultKEV 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2