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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4 amigosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apex Genesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
YamSun · 5 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
BliNcc · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
red2 · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 4 games
50%
Pugna
Pugna
BliNcc · 3 games
33%

4 amigos

Mirana
Mirana
albinozebra · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
RCY · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
33%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Double King · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Double King · 3 games
33%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
33%
Axe
Axeoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
477 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 669 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
415 picks · 595 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
412 picks · 736 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
412 picks · 380 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
375 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
341 picks · 1011 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:6
Apex Genesis 57%4 amigos 43%
The model gave 57% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 22:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSammyboy
54% · 31 game46% · 127 games
Templar AssassinRCY
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightW1sh-
47% · 135 games47% · 244 games
TinyDouble King
Tiny
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
56% · 45 games53% · 23 games
Night Stalkermonkeys-forever
Night Stalker
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSpeeed
57% · 138 games48% · 39 games
Shadow Shamanalbinozebra
Shadow Shaman
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBignum
51% · 84 games
Game 2prediction correct41:10
Apex Genesis 54%4 amigos 46%
The model gave 54% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 25:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSammyboy
48% · 17 games52% · 249 games
TimbersawRCY
Timbersaw
Void Spirit
Void SpiritW1sh-
49% · 63 games54% · 62 games
Troll WarlordDouble King
Troll Warlord
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFayde
55% · 24 gameslittle data
Sand Kingmonkeys-forever
Sand King
Rubick
RubickBignum
41% · 166 games48% · 52 games
Venomanceralbinozebra
Venomancer
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSpeeed
51% · 93 games
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 61%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2