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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 41 game
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 31 game
65%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 26 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 24 games
54%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 22 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 21 game
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 30 games
60%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 22 games
41%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 21 game
48%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
476 picks · 220 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 668 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
414 picks · 595 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
412 picks · 380 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 737 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
339 picks · 961 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 51%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total61% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:27
1w Team 57%Yellow Submarine 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 44:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingMunkushi~
58% · 33 games46% · 89 games
Troll WarlordSatanic
Troll Warlord
Abaddon
AbaddonCloud
59% · 28 games50% · 80 games
Zeuserase
Zeus
Slardar
SlardarChira JUNIOR
48% · 116 games46% · 236 games
Centaur Warrunnerkasane
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
53% · 259 games54% · 181 game
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
Crystal Maiden
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
45% · 150 games
Game 2prediction missed30:44
1w Team 57%Yellow Submarine 43%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:13:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverMunkushi~
48% · 43 games48% · 44 games
MeepoSatanic
Meepo
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
57% · 39 games57% · 187 games
Doomkasane
Doom
Slardar
SlardarCloud
41% · 74 games52% · 143 games
Windrangererase
Windranger
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
47% · 277 games52% · 203 games
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
Crystal Maiden
Undying
UndyingRESPECT
48% · 144 games
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 61%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2