Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4A4 amigosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 18 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 17 games
Gyrocopter
Lelis · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 15 games
Techiessignature
Fly · 15 games
4 amigos
Mirana
albinozebra · 4 games
Puckoften banned
RCY · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Double King · 2 games
Omniknightoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
RCY · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
476 picks · 220 bans
Tiny
432 picks · 666 bans
Centaur Warrunner
413 picks · 594 bans
Gyrocopter
412 picks · 380 bans
Batrider
410 picks · 734 bans
Rubick
373 picks · 160 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
Shadow Demon
339 picks · 960 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
nouns 66%4 amigos 34%
The model gave 66% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyYuma
Dragon KnightRCY
ZeusCopy
ClinkzDouble King
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
Axemonkeys-forever
ClockwerkFly
Warlockalbinozebra
Shadow ShamanLelis
Game 2prediction correct48:21
nouns 66%4 amigos 34%
The model gave 66% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 43:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld DestroyerCopy
Earth SpiritRCY
WeaverYuma
ClinkzDouble King
MuertaLelis
Axemonkeys-forever
SlardarGunnar
Ogre Magialbinozebra
ClockwerkFly
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 80%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2