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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apex Genesisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 22 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 14 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Luna
Luna
Arteezy · 12 games
25%

Apex Genesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
BliNcc · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 4 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenix
YamSun · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
red2 · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 4 games
50%
Pugna
Pugna
BliNcc · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
476 picks · 220 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
432 picks · 666 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
413 picks · 594 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
412 picks · 380 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 734 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
339 picks · 960 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:15
Shopify Rebellion 71%Apex Genesis 29%
The model gave 71% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 29:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYopaj
45% · 97 games49% · 122 games
WindrangerW1sh-
Windranger
Pudge
PudgeArteezy
67% · 35 games54% · 33 games
Chaos KnightSammyboy
Chaos Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
50% · 154 games47% · 97 games
Dark SeerFayde
Dark Seer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSkem
42% · 105 games64% · 45 games
VenomancerSpeeed
Venomancer
46% · 94 games
Spirit BreakerBignum
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct33:5
Shopify Rebellion 72%Apex Genesis 28%
The model gave 72% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 22:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracYopaj
46% · 85 games46% · 134 games
TimbersawW1sh-
Timbersaw
Axe
AxeMinD_ContRoL
46% · 38 games60% · 12 games
Wraith KingSammyboy
Wraith King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightArteezy
48% · 122 games56% · 35 games
Legion CommanderFayde
Legion Commander
Mirana
MiranaSkem
63% · 66 games45% · 87 games
PhoenixSpeeed
Phoenix
51% · 43 games
MuertaBignum
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 87%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2