?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 20 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bombi · 15 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
JG · 10 games
80%
Techies
Techiessignature
Bombi · 9 games
67%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Bombi · 9 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Bombi · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 8 games
50%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 664 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
411 picks · 590 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
409 picks · 728 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
409 picks · 378 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
372 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
338 picks · 954 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:42
Neon Esports 39%Blacklist International 61%
The model gave 61% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 26:39.
Game 2prediction correct22:35
Neon Esports 39%Blacklist International 61%
The model gave 61% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 45:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 61%
Series resultBlacklist International 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2