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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Neon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 19 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bombi · 15 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
JG · 9 games
78%
Techies
Techiessignature
Bombi · 9 games
67%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Bombi · 9 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Bombi · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
426 picks · 663 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
410 picks · 585 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
407 picks · 375 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
406 picks · 725 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
372 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
337 picks · 997 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total74% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:15
Aurora Gaming 74%Neon Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 44:31.
Game 2prediction missed34:8
Aurora Gaming 74%Neon Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 28:42.
Game 3prediction missed28:14
Aurora Gaming 74%Neon Esports 26%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 50:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 74%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3