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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team NextUploss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team NextUp

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
VaniLLl · 11 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
27%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 9 games
44%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 8 games
25%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 7 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 7 games
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
33%

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 15 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 15 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 14 games
43%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
465 picks · 219 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 659 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
405 picks · 575 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
403 picks · 374 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
400 picks · 717 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
372 picks · 158 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 754 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
332 picks · 947 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total71% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:36
Team NextUp 37%Nemiga Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlord7jesu
51% · 76 games47% · 195 games
MorphlingLukas
Morphling
Leshrac
LeshracMirage
50% · 124 games51% · 169 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Razor
RazorMiyaoo
49% · 147 games55% · 72 games
Slardarnicky`cool
Slardar
Batrider
BatriderHappyDyurara
50% · 271 game50% · 109 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
45% · 73 games
Baneaik
Bane
Game 2prediction correct26:46
Team NextUp 37%Nemiga Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 45:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMirage
47% · 94 games52% · 56 games
UrsaLukas
Ursa
Tiny
Tiny7jesu
46% · 217 games53% · 258 games
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderMiyaoo
48% · 227 games60% · 65 games
Slardarnicky`cool
Slardar
Io
IoHappyDyurara
44% · 70 games51% · 138 games
Grimstrokequeezy
Grimstroke
52% · 91 game
Weaveraik
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 71%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2