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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SIBE Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lion
Zayac · 15 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 11 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
Zayac · 11 games
27%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Malady · 10 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nefrit · 10 games
60%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 29 games
34%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 20 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 17 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
25%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 220 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
420 picks · 658 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 374 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
403 picks · 574 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
401 picks · 715 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
371 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
333 picks · 946 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total80% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:7
Natus Vincere 67%SIBE Team 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 27:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
47% · 97 games52% · 162 games
Tinyselfhate
Tiny
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
44% · 34 games53% · 188 games
Batriderряф^^
Batrider
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSancity
47% · 141 game55% · 32 games
Shadow Shamansunset
Shadow Shaman
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMalady
53% · 58 games44% · 55 games
WarlockSOhY
Warlock
Dark Willow
Dark WillowZayac
52% · 107 games
Game 2prediction missed18:36
Natus Vincere 67%SIBE Team 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 45:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuragi
44% · 90 games57% · 172 games
Windrangerряф^^
Windranger
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSancity
58% · 101 game57% · 43 games
Spectreselfhate
Spectre
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
48% · 122 games54% · 146 games
SnapfireSOhY
Snapfire
Zeus
ZeusZayac
34% · 46 games49% · 147 games
Dark Willowsunset
Dark Willow
Phoenix
PhoenixMalady
44% · 149 games
Game 3prediction correct34:13
Natus Vincere 66%SIBE Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYuragi
57% · 36 games64% · 42 games
Ursaselfhate
Ursa
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNefrit
53% · 100 games50% · 14 games
Necrophosряф^^
Necrophos
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSancity
44% · 92 games46% · 154 games
SnapfireSOhY
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingMalady
46% · 149 games48% · 318 games
Rubicksunset
Rubick
Tiny
TinyZayac
48% · 151 game
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 80%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3