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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 18 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Palos · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 16 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Gabbi · 15 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Abed · 15 games
47%
Luna
Luna
Palos · 14 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 12 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Tims · 12 games
75%

Execration

Techies
Techies
cml · 7 games
43%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 5 games
20%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Shanks · 5 games
20%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Shanks · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Shanks · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 220 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 658 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 372 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
403 picks · 571 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
401 picks · 712 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
370 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
333 picks · 944 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 43%
Hero pool strength61% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:18
TNC Predator 59%Execration 41%
The model gave 59% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 36:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPalos
53% · 44 games53% · 60 games
WeaverAbat
Weaver
Zeus
ZeusYowe
49% · 91 game52% · 122 games
Dragon KnightTino-
Dragon Knight
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKuku
42% · 24 games43% · 79 games
PhoenixShanks
Phoenix
Tiny
TinyJing
49% · 181 game56% · 79 games
Grimstrokecml
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct29:16
TNC Predator 63%Execration 37%
The model gave 63% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 36:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyPalos
50% · 258 games50% · 153 games
LunaAbat
Luna
Leshrac
LeshracYowe
60% · 131 game40% · 155 games
Dragon KnightTino-
Dragon Knight
Weaver
WeaverJing
56% · 113 games47% · 241 game
RubickShanks
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixKuku
41% · 146 games56% · 99 games
Clockwerkcml
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 70%
Series resultTNC Predator 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2