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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team NextUploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 25 games
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 25 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 21 game
62%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 21 game
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Squad1x · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 18 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Kiritych · 16 games
56%

Team NextUp

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
VaniLLl · 11 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
27%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 7 games
57%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 7 games
29%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 220 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 658 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 572 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
402 picks · 372 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
398 picks · 710 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
369 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
333 picks · 944 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 35%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:3
Virtus.pro 69%Team NextUp 31%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 21:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKiritych
51% · 50 games51% · 155 games
Lifestealer7jesu
Lifestealer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSquad1x
57% · 95 games43% · 83 games
Void SpiritMirage
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderNoticed
46% · 171 game52% · 109 games
SlardarMiyaoo
Slardar
Tusk
TuskAntares
47% · 70 games50% · 175 games
DisruptorHappyDyurara
Disruptor
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFng
53% · 136 games
Game 2prediction correct27:2
Virtus.pro 72%Team NextUp 28%
The model gave 72% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 22:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracSquad1x
56% · 146 games41% · 195 games
Dragon KnightMirage
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomNoticed
51% · 153 games48% · 154 games
Lifestealer7jesu
Lifestealer
Weaver
WeaverKiritych
57% · 74 games49% · 188 games
RazorMiyaoo
Razor
Phoenix
PhoenixFng
45% · 155 games53% · 223 games
Crystal MaidenHappyDyurara
Crystal Maiden
Tiny
TinyAntares
51% · 232 games
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 85%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2