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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IHC Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 19 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Ponyo · 13 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 13 games
69%
Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 13 games
54%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 11 games
64%

IHC Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 9 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
eleven · 6 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ace12 · 5 games
40%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 4 games
75%
Techies
Techies
ace12 · 4 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
423 · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
eleven · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 220 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 654 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 567 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 369 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 707 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
369 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
332 picks · 942 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total75% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:13
Talon Esports 64%IHC Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerAkashi
48% · 94 games52% · 175 games
Marseleven
Mars
Zeus
ZeusCHYuan
52% · 70 games53% · 101 game
Clockwerkace12
Clockwerk
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
48% · 186 games51% · 170 games
GrimstrokeHishge
Grimstroke
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPonyo
50% · 70 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJhocam
37% · 26 games
Game 2prediction correct34:15
Talon Esports 61%IHC Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAkashi
50% · 50 games47% · 222 games
Centaur Warrunnereleven
Centaur Warrunner
Axe
AxeWs
40% · 22 games59% · 92 games
Spirit BreakerHishge
Spirit Breaker
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCHYuan
47% · 105 games57% · 59 games
Ioace12
Io
Phoenix
PhoenixPonyo
45% · 95 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJhocam
46% · 101 game
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 75%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2