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Riyadh Masters 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4 amigoswin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Next Generationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4 amigos

Mirana
Mirana
albinozebra · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
33%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
RCY · 3 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Double King · 2 games
50%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
RCY · 2 games
50%

Next Generation

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 220 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 647 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 564 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
398 picks · 368 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 706 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
369 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 754 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
332 picks · 940 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% 4 amigos
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% 4 amigos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:6
4 amigos 70%Next Generation 30%
The model gave 70% on 4 amigos — the game was taken by 4 amigos in 21:25.
Game 2prediction correct13:33
4 amigos 70%Next Generation 30%
The model gave 70% on 4 amigos — the game was taken by 4 amigos in 30:03.
Model check result
Model favorite4 amigos · 70%
Series result4 amigos 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2