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Riyadh Masters 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
JustBetterwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Hryvnialoss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

JustBetter

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 7 games
43%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Astral · 6 games
67%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 6 games
17%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Astral · 4 games
25%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 4 games
25%

Team Hryvnia

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
468 picks · 220 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 645 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 367 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 704 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 564 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
368 picks · 159 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
331 picks · 936 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% JustBetter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:37
JustBetter 61%Team Hryvnia 39%
The model gave 61% on JustBetter — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia in 42:51.
Game 2prediction correct31:10
JustBetter 61%Team Hryvnia 39%
The model gave 61% on JustBetter — the game was taken by JustBetter in 32:56.
Game 3prediction correct23:9
JustBetter 61%Team Hryvnia 39%
The model gave 61% on JustBetter — the game was taken by JustBetter in 26:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteJustBetter · 61%
Series resultJustBetter 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3