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Riyadh Masters 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team NextUpwin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Matreshka Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team NextUp

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
VaniLLl · 11 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
27%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 7 games
29%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%

Matreshka Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
dark · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
dark · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
467 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 646 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 366 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 705 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 565 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
368 picks · 159 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
332 picks · 936 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:25
Team NextUp 34%Matreshka Team 66%
The model gave 66% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 34:59.
Game 2prediction missed20:50
Team NextUp 34%Matreshka Team 66%
The model gave 66% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 39:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 66%
Series resultTeam NextUp 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2