Riyadh Masters 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 0:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ALApex Legacywin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 9 games
Marssignature
Moo · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 7 games
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 5 games
Lunaoften banned
Double King · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
Apex Legacy
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
467 picks · 222 bans
Tiny
413 picks · 644 bans
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 366 bans
Batrider
395 picks · 705 bans
Centaur Warrunner
395 picks · 566 bans
Rubick
368 picks · 159 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
Shadow Demon
330 picks · 937 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
GRIN esports 59%Apex Legacy 41%
The model gave 59% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by Apex Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 59%
Series resultApex Legacy 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1