FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 12 games
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 12 games
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 11 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 9 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 8 games
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 8 games
OG
Hoodwink
Ari · 32 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 27 games
Rubick
Ari · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 24 games
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 222 bans
Tiny
411 picks · 642 bans
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 366 bans
Batrider
394 picks · 701 bans
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 563 bans
Rubick
367 picks · 159 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
Shadow Demon
330 picks · 934 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:28
Nigma Galaxy 29%OG 71%
The model gave 71% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerMiracle-
Chaos KnightTimado
Dragon KnightSumaiL
TimbersawWisper
Primal BeastFbz
Storm Spiritbzm
Crystal MaidenKuroKy
PhoenixCeb
GrimstrokeGH
RubickAri
Game 2prediction correct7:25
Nigma Galaxy 31%OG 69%
The model gave 69% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 29:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyMiracle-
Shadow FiendTimado
LeshracSumaiL
Void Spiritbzm
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
SlardarWisper
ChenKuroKy
PhoenixAri
DisruptorGH
Ogre MagiCeb
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 85%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2