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Riyadh Masters 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 0:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team NextUpwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Mars
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
40%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 12 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
DarkLord^ · 9 games
33%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Alberkaaa · 8 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Alberkaaa · 8 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Solo · 7 games
43%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
DarkLord^ · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Solo · 7 games
100%

Team NextUp

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
VaniLLl · 11 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
27%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 640 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 366 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
394 picks · 701 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 563 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
367 picks · 158 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
330 picks · 933 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength54% 9Pandas
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total83% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:33
9Pandas 70%Team NextUp 30%
The model gave 70% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 33:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenDarkLord^
47% · 50 games54% · 81 game
Lifestealer7jesu
Lifestealer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
51% · 55 gameslittle data
Shadow FiendMirage
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
50% · 61 game45% · 43 games
SlardarMiyaoo
Slardar
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
54% · 51 game49% · 121 game
DisruptorHappyDyurara
Disruptor
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSolo
48% · 28 games
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 83%
Series resultTeam NextUp 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1