Riyadh Masters 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Montewin 1:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
SPStryi Parkloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monte
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 12 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 9 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moonlight · 8 games
Gyrocopter
Crystallize · 8 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 8 games
Rubick
QBFY · 8 games
Stryi Park
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
411 picks · 639 bans
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 366 bans
Batrider
394 picks · 700 bans
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 563 bans
Rubick
367 picks · 158 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
Shadow Demon
330 picks · 932 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Stryi Park
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Monte
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:8
Monte 52%Stryi Park 48%
The model gave 52% on Monte — the game was taken by Monte in 27:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonte · 52%
Series resultMonte 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1