FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 31 game
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 28 games
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 27 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 27 games
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 22 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 20 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 18 games
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 18 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
465 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
408 picks · 638 bans
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 366 bans
Batrider
394 picks · 697 bans
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 562 bans
Rubick
366 picks · 158 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
Shadow Demon
330 picks · 928 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total65% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:31
MOUZ 35%Entity 65%
The model gave 65% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 20:48.
Game 2prediction correct12:46
MOUZ 35%Entity 65%
The model gave 65% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 27:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 65%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2