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FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 9 games
67%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 8 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 8 games
63%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 30 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 28 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 27 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 26 games
65%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 22 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 20 games
55%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 18 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
465 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
408 picks · 637 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
398 picks · 366 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
393 picks · 698 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
392 picks · 562 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
366 picks · 158 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 758 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
328 picks · 928 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:32
Nigma Galaxy 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 24:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverMiracle-
58% · 96 games50% · 104 games
LifestealerUlnit
Lifestealer
Zeus
ZeusSumaiL
48% · 99 games51% · 150 games
TimbersawForce
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFbz
50% · 209 games54% · 88 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Chen
ChenKuroKy
51% · 80 games41% · 19 games
Bounty HunterNARMAN
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
TuskGH
40% · 70 games49% · 193 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct19:25
Nigma Galaxy 39%MOUZ 61%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMiracle-
45% · 42 games49% · 57 games
UrsaUlnit
Ursa
Razor
RazorSumaiL
46% · 125 games53% · 171 game
LeshracSupream^
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
50% · 222 games52% · 55 games
UnderlordForce
Underlord
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
44% · 144 games50% · 232 games
Vengeful Spiritbengan
Vengeful Spirit
Batrider
BatriderKuroKy
56% · 271 game52% · 289 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 66%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2