FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Hoodwink
Ari · 32 games
Rubick
Ari · 27 games
Marssignature
Wisper · 26 games
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 22 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 21 game
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 18 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
465 picks · 222 bans
Tiny
406 picks · 637 bans
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 366 bans
Batrider
393 picks · 697 bans
Centaur Warrunner
390 picks · 561 bans
Rubick
366 picks · 157 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 759 bans
Shadow Demon
328 picks · 928 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 66%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total64% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:32
OG 64%Entity 36%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by Entity in 21:10.
Game 2prediction missed20:28
OG 64%Entity 36%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by Entity in 34:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 64%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2