FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 50 games
Rubicksignature
9Class · 37 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 33 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 28 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
Snipersignature
Topson · 24 games
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
Batrideroften banned
9Class · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
464 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
409 picks · 631 bans
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 362 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 699 bans
Centaur Warrunner
389 picks · 564 bans
Rubick
363 picks · 156 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 761 bans
Shadow Demon
328 picks · 930 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 7
Model total73% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:49
Entity 27%Tundra Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:20.
Game 2prediction correct39:18
Entity 27%Tundra Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 73%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2