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FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 26 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 23 games
52%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 21 game
62%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 21 game
71%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 18 games
61%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Squad1x · 18 games
56%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Kiritych · 16 games
56%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 50 games
78%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 37 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 33 games
67%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
50%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 24 games
71%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
9Class · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
467 picks · 223 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
408 picks · 632 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
401 picks · 361 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
400 picks · 702 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
389 picks · 564 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
368 picks · 157 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 765 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
328 picks · 931 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:30
Virtus.pro 34%Tundra Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherKiritych
41% · 37 games52% · 28 games
ClinkzPure~
Clinkz
Windranger
WindrangerSquad1x
51% · 107 games53% · 162 games
Storm SpiritTopson
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
55% · 124 games39% · 29 games
Night StalkerRAMZES666
Night Stalker
Pugna
PugnaAntares
51% · 97 games51% · 106 games
ClockwerkWhitemon
Clockwerk
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernFng
41% · 22 games50% · 62 games
Io9Class
Io
Game 2prediction correct31:39
Virtus.pro 31%Tundra Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracSquad1x
57% · 156 games54% · 136 games
LunaPure~
Luna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
52% · 287 games42% · 127 games
DoomRAMZES666
Doom
Slark
SlarkKiritych
50% · 99 games53% · 115 games
Storm SpiritTopson
Storm Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernFng
51% · 37 games46% · 41 game
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAntares
40% · 39 games47% · 199 games
Tiny9Class
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 80%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2