FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 15 games
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 11 games
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 11 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 8 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
469 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
411 picks · 629 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 706 bans
Gyrocopter
400 picks · 361 bans
Centaur Warrunner
391 picks · 568 bans
Rubick
370 picks · 157 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 769 bans
Shadow Demon
331 picks · 932 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:14
Nigma Galaxy 20%Entity 80%
The model gave 80% on Entity — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:00.
Game 2prediction missed30:12
Nigma Galaxy 20%Entity 80%
The model gave 80% on Entity — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 40:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 80%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2