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FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Secretloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 27 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 21 game
67%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 20 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 18 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 18 games
61%

Team Secret

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 19 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
Thiolicor · 14 games
36%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
62%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Puppey · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
30%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 9 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BOOM · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 224 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 629 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
409 picks · 711 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
402 picks · 361 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 573 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
371 picks · 159 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 776 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
334 picks · 942 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 35%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total80% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
OG 68%Team Secret 32%
The model gave 68% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 37:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracbzm
59% · 86 games48% · 101 game
MedusaCrystallis
Medusa
Lifestealer
LifestealerTimado
52% · 103 games51% · 119 games
Ember SpiritBOOM
Ember Spirit
Axe
AxeWisper
51% · 35 games47% · 208 games
TechiesShishak
Techies
Phoenix
PhoenixCeb
45% · 143 games53% · 88 games
WeaverPuppey
Weaver
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAri
45% · 149 games
Game 2prediction missed22:42
OG 69%Team Secret 31%
The model gave 69% on OG — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
55% · 259 games48% · 268 games
TinyCrystallis
Tiny
Batrider
Batriderbzm
55% · 361 game52% · 228 games
TimbersawBOOM
Timbersaw
Magnus
MagnusWisper
50% · 217 games45% · 241 game
Vengeful SpiritPuppey
Vengeful Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
54% · 158 games39% · 340 games
RubickShishak
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorCeb
56% · 82 games
Game 3prediction correct33:10
OG 68%Team Secret 32%
The model gave 68% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 27:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanTimado
58% · 84 games46% · 118 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Timbersaw
Timbersawbzm
48% · 283 games48% · 194 games
TinyBOOM
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderWisper
54% · 339 games41% · 331 game
RubickShishak
Rubick
Venomancer
VenomancerCeb
54% · 68 games54% · 263 games
Shadow DemonPuppey
Shadow Demon
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAri
50% · 132 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 80%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3