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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 49 games
78%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 47 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 45 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 44 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 39 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 36 games
81%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 36 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 32 games
78%

BETBOOM TEAM

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 27 games
44%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 24 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 24 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 24 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 22 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 18 games
72%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
gpK~ · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
478 picks · 222 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
423 picks · 638 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
415 picks · 724 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 361 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 580 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
377 picks · 162 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 787 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
336 picks · 950 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total73% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:19
Team Falcons 64%BETBOOM TEAM 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
54% · 189 games50% · 286 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
52% · 254 games50% · 119 games
WindrangergpK~
Windranger
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
57% · 57 games51% · 75 games
SlardarMieRo
Slardar
Chen
ChenSneyking
55% · 87 games44% · 212 games
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
Enchantress
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
46% · 177 games44% · 72 games
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed10:25
Team Falcons 62%BETBOOM TEAM 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 34:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
47% · 275 games50% · 300 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
46% · 175 games54% · 229 games
Dragon KnightgpK~
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
47% · 321 game56% · 90 games
SlardarMieRo
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
39% · 203 games57% · 162 games
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
Mirana
Lich
LichSneyking
47% · 41 game58% · 234 games
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct32:10
Team Falcons 65%BETBOOM TEAM 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSkiter
55% · 52 games47% · 142 games
Templar AssassingpK~
Templar Assassin
Doom
DoomATF
58% · 156 games51% · 55 games
Wraith KingNightfall
Wraith King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
52% · 103 games46% · 71 game
SlardarMieRo
Slardar
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSneyking
44% · 19 games46% · 103 games
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
Mirana
Dark Willow
Dark WillowCr1t-
49% · 113 games48% · 72 games
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 73%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3