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Elite League Season 2 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
UpStarsloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SIBE Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UpStars

No games played over 6 months.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 31 game
35%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 20 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 17 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
25%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 16 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 15 games
47%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 223 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 643 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
422 picks · 728 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
405 picks · 582 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 363 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 162 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 794 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
341 picks · 957 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% UpStars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
UpStars 30%SIBE Team 70%
The model gave 70% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team.
Game 2prediction missed
UpStars 30%SIBE Team 70%
The model gave 70% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by UpStars.
Game 3prediction correct30:58
UpStars 30%SIBE Team 70%
The model gave 70% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 40:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 70%
Series resultSIBE Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3