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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Azure Rayloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 27 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 20 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
71%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 17 games
76%

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 30 games
60%
Lion
Lion
fy · 28 games
54%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 28 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 26 games
58%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 22 games
68%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lou · 21 game
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 224 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 644 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
423 picks · 727 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
406 picks · 584 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
405 picks · 364 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 162 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 799 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
344 picks · 958 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total75% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:35
Xtreme Gaming 63%Azure Ray 37%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 1:01:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusXm
47% · 51 game57% · 135 games
Naga Sirenlou
Naga Siren
Tiny
TinyAme
46% · 130 games42% · 41 game
AxeFaith_bian
Axe
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXxs
55% · 100 games53% · 55 games
PudgeOri
Pudge
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXinQ
50% · 128 games55% · 141 game
Disruptor天命
Disruptor
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
44% · 119 games47% · 156 games
Snapfirefy
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Xtreme Gaming 65%Azure Ray 35%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaAme
48% · 52 games38% · 24 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
56% · 114 games53% · 28 games
PudgeOri
Pudge
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderXxs
53% · 20 games53% · 29 games
SlardarFaith_bian
Slardar
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerXinQ
49% · 59 games48% · 42 games
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
Silencer
SilencerDy
43% · 46 games52% · 168 games
Enchantress天命
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct29:14
Xtreme Gaming 65%Azure Ray 35%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAme
55% · 36 games40% · 104 games
Terrorbladelou
Terrorblade
Viper
ViperXm
55% · 10 games63% · 18 games
PudgeOri
Pudge
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritXxs
51% · 70 games60% · 24 games
Night StalkerFaith_bian
Night Stalker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
60% · 25 games39% · 16 games
Shadow Shamanfy
Shadow Shaman
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDy
51% · 40 games40% · 19 games
Oracle天命
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 75%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3