Elite League Season 2 - Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Crocodilewin 1:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Ardourloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Crocodile
No games played over 6 months.
Ardour
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
433 picks · 644 bans
Batrider
423 picks · 727 bans
Centaur Warrunner
406 picks · 584 bans
Gyrocopter
405 picks · 364 bans
Rubick
390 picks · 162 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 799 bans
Shadow Demon
344 picks · 958 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Crocodile
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Crocodile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Crocodile 52%Ardour 48%
The model gave 52% on Crocodile — the game was taken by Crocodile.
Model check result
Model favoriteCrocodile · 52%
Series resultCrocodile 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1