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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 30 games
60%
Lion
Lion
fy · 28 games
54%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 28 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 25 games
56%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 22 games
68%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lou · 21 game
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 19 games
42%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 35 games
49%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 26 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 20 games
70%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 19 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 18 games
39%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
488 picks · 221 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
432 picks · 645 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
422 picks · 726 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
405 picks · 583 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
405 picks · 364 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
389 picks · 162 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 798 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
344 picks · 958 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:6
Azure Ray 59%Heroic 41%
The model gave 59% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 51:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordlou
62% · 54 games43% · 128 games
RazorK1
Razor
Leshrac
LeshracOri
53% · 98 games49% · 35 games
Pudge4nalog
Pudge
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
56% · 157 games49% · 21 game
Night StalkerDavai
Night Stalker
Snapfire
Snapfirefy
46% · 88 games43% · 132 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Venomancer
Venomancer天命
69% · 14 games46% · 95 games
ClockwerkKJ
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct35:34
Azure Ray 58%Heroic 42%
The model gave 58% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 1:06:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursalou
35% · 36 games50% · 117 games
RazorK1
Razor
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerOri
59% · 20 games56% · 121 game
Leshrac4nalog
Leshrac
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFaith_bian
51% · 211 games53% · 199 games
Ember SpiritDavai
Ember Spirit
Clockwerk
Clockwerkfy
40% · 116 games51% · 143 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Batrider
Batrider天命
50% · 323 games60% · 126 games
DisruptorKJ
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 65%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2