DreamLeague Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
BETBOOM TEAM
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 27 games
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 24 games
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 23 games
Lion
Save- · 22 games
Tinysignature
Save- · 22 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 18 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
gpK~ · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 219 bans
Tiny
432 picks · 643 bans
Batrider
421 picks · 727 bans
Centaur Warrunner
406 picks · 583 bans
Gyrocopter
405 picks · 364 bans
Rubick
390 picks · 162 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 801 bans
Shadow Demon
344 picks · 960 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:32
Aurora Gaming 29%BETBOOM TEAM 71%
The model gave 71% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 40:50.
Game 2prediction correct2:18
Aurora Gaming 29%BETBOOM TEAM 71%
The model gave 71% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 26:07.
Game 3prediction correct27:22
Aurora Gaming 29%BETBOOM TEAM 71%
The model gave 71% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:14:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 71%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3