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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 50 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 46 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 44 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 44 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 39 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 36 games
81%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 36 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 33 games
79%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 27 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 20 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 20 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
71%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 218 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
432 picks · 643 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
421 picks · 725 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
406 picks · 582 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
405 picks · 363 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 162 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 801 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
344 picks · 959 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total67% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:9
Team Falcons 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
57% · 65 games52% · 120 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
49% · 164 games51% · 168 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderATF
45% · 35 games54% · 65 games
SlardarXxs
Slardar
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
43% · 78 games50% · 4 games
Nyx AssassinXinQ
Nyx Assassin
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
42% · 60 games55% · 45 games
LichDy
Lich
Game 2prediction correct43:13
Team Falcons 61%Xtreme Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
46% · 77 games55% · 33 games
ClinkzAme
Clinkz
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
47% · 11 games54% · 66 games
LeshracXm
Leshrac
Night Stalker
Night StalkerATF
75% · 4 gameslittle data
Sand KingXxs
Sand King
Chen
ChenSneyking
56% · 49 games48% · 24 games
Winter WyvernXinQ
Winter Wyvern
Dark Willow
Dark WillowCr1t-
46% · 55 games46% · 73 games
Treant ProtectorDy
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 67%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2