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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Heroicwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 32 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 31 game
55%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 24 games
42%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 24 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 35 games
49%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 26 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 19 games
68%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 19 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 18 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 17 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 17 games
41%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 218 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 639 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
419 picks · 726 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
406 picks · 581 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 363 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 163 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 799 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
342 picks · 957 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 32%
Hero pool strength50% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total76% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:19
Team Liquid 65%Heroic 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Heroic in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNisha
49% · 10 games50% · 93 games
LifestealerK1
Lifestealer
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
60% · 146 games46% · 113 games
Dragon Knight4nalog
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
51% · 107 games51% · 182 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
46% · 248 games41% · 102 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorBoxi
52% · 162 games50% · 183 games
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct28:19
Team Liquid 65%Heroic 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNisha
48% · 221 game47% · 190 games
RazorK1
Razor
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidmiCKe
51% · 206 games55% · 158 games
Leshrac4nalog
Leshrac
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
47% · 201 game54% · 63 games
ViperDavai
Viper
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
41% · 191 game50% · 310 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
50% · 196 games57% · 294 games
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed38:40
Team Liquid 63%Heroic 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:16:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
47% · 240 games50% · 191 game
Faceless VoidK1
Faceless Void
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
46% · 234 games58% · 132 games
Keeper of the Light4nalog
Keeper of the Light
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
43% · 193 games49% · 160 games
KunkkaDavai
Kunkka
Marci
MarciBoxi
47% · 46 games42% · 133 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Chen
CheniNSaNiA
60% · 96 games58% · 193 games
Shadow DemonKJ
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 76%
Series resultHeroic 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3