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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lion
Zayac · 15 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 11 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Malady · 10 games
60%
Techies
Techies
Zayac · 10 games
30%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 10 games
70%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 49 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 46 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 44 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 42 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 39 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 37 games
81%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 35 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 33 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 217 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 638 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
418 picks · 726 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
408 picks · 579 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 362 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
391 picks · 164 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 797 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
343 picks · 957 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 63%
Hero pool strength62% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total93% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:36
Natus Vincere 19%Team Falcons 81%
The model gave 81% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperSancity
50% · 66 games54% · 198 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Lifestealer
LifestealerYuragi
47% · 116 games45% · 81 game
ZeusMalr1ne
Zeus
Slardar
SlardarNefrit
52% · 81 game55% · 152 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Techies
TechiesZayac
44% · 263 games56% · 167 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Pugna
PugnaMalady
51% · 194 games46% · 122 games
Dark WillowCr1t-
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct24:45
Natus Vincere 19%Team Falcons 81%
The model gave 81% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackYuragi
52% · 41 game61% · 55 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNefrit
52% · 95 games47% · 104 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSancity
44% · 84 games48% · 128 games
MarsATF
Mars
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMalady
50% · 186 games52% · 173 games
BatriderSneyking
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
44% · 167 games53% · 113 games
Dark WillowCr1t-
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 93%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2